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The upcoming Synod and the next pope

The Synod on Synodality could be a kind of large-scale, semi-public audition for a number of the men who may be thought to have a reasonable chance of one day becoming the 266th successor of St. Peter as pastor of the universal Church.

Statue of St. Peter at the Vatican. (CNS photo/Paul Haring)

In case you didn’t notice, the process of choosing the next pope has begun. No, Pope Francis is still going strong, and the cardinals didn’t slip back into the Vatican under cover of night and immediately convene in conclave.

But that doesn’t mean the selection process isn’t happening. Look closely and you can see it at work in the sort of speculation and maneuvering that typically precede a papal election.

In discussing this subject, it’s important to say at the start that Pope Francis looks to be in good health for a man his age—87 before the year is out. Yes, he uses a cane and sometimes a wheelchair to get around, but many elderly people do the same. And he keeps up a grueling schedule of travel, meetings, and special events that many younger men would hesitate to tackle.

Note, too, that although a few years ago he was talking about resignation as some day a possibility for him, more recently he has taken to saying that being pope is a lifelong job that he means to see through to the end.

But the signs that we are in a pre-conclave period are there just the same.

One obvious sign is the appearance in media here and there of lists of papabile—names of men, almost always cardinals, whom the journalists compiling the lists consider to have a reasonable chance of being elected. While the results sometimes are far-fetched, that is no deterrent to the imaginative skills of some of my colleagues.

Personally, I have a notion that the choice could well be an Asian or African cardinal—and there are several Asians and Africans who qualify as papabile.

More significant than papabile lists, however, are things Pope Francis himself has been saying and doing. The Pope has not been talking about leaving the scene in the near future, but there is no question that he has been actively engaged in setting the stage for the choice of a successor who, he hopes, will continue to pursue his great project of creating a synodal Church.

This is most clearly the case in his choice of new cardinals—the men, that is, who will one day be voting for the next pope. When Francis formally installs 21 new members in the College of Cardinals at the end of this month, he will have named over 70% of the electors who some day will be doing that.

Another part of this picture is the Synod on Synodality, which opens October 4 at the Vatican and continues to October 29, with a second session for reaching decisions and making recommendations scheduled for October of next year.

More directly related to the choice of the next pope than anything the Synod on Synodality says or does is the light that their participation in this event will shed on the attitudes and capabilities of potential candidates for the papacy. Simply stated, the Synod on Synodality, viewed from that perspective, will be a kind of large-scale, semi-public audition for a number of the men who may be thought to have a reasonable chance of one day becoming the 266th successor of St. Peter as pastor of the universal Church.

This is not to say these synod participants will not be interested in the synod itself. They will. But they will also be aware that what they say and do in that setting is being observed and noted by men who, perhaps fairly soon, will be choosing the next pope.


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About Russell Shaw 305 Articles
Russell Shaw was secretary for public affairs of the National Conference of Catholic Bishops/United States Catholic Conference from 1969 to 1987. He is the author of 20 books, including Nothing to Hide, American Church: The Remarkable Rise, Meteoric Fall, and Uncertain Future of Catholicism in America, Eight Popes and the Crisis of Modernity, and, most recently, The Life of Jesus Christ (Our Sunday Visitor, 2021).

18 Comments

  1. Which brings us back to Edward Pentin’s still recent compendium of anonymously researched, balanced, thorough, lucid and informative profiles of likely papabili: “The Next Pope:The Leading Cardinal Candidates,” Sophia Institute Press, 2020.

    The 19 names on that list are: Bagnasco (Italy), Burke (USA), Duka (Czech Republic), Eijk (Netherlands), Erdo (Hungary), Muller (Germany), Napier (South Africa), O’Malley (USA), Ouellet (Canada), Parolin (Italy), Piacenza (Italy), Ranjith (Sri Lanka), Ravasi (Italy), Sarah (Guinea), Schornborn (Austria), Scola (Scola), Tagle (Philippines), Turkson (Ghana), and Zuppi (Zuppi).

    Comparing this list to the full list of Synod participants as published by the Catholic News Agency on July 8, 2023, the only ones included are Parolin, Tagle, Muller, O’Malley, Ouellet and Schonborn.

    Maybe the Synod is not quite the full debutante ball after all; we can hope not.

    • Some of the Latins are fond of saying that the Church can not have an exclusively European character. They mean they want to make the local Church in the “feeling” and “life” of the “local culture”.

      It also has the meaning that people like Sarah and Arrinze are “too Europeanized”; it has that kind of sense to it. The latter I think is dishonest.

      Actually a handful want to “de-Europeanize” the Church altogether, in that “European character” has had its day. This view lurks quietly in the background and I think it is more dishonest.

      I think also that people like Girasoli and Schonborn would consider it necessary to promote someone who has those kinds of exotica sympathies; and if needs be, even yield the Papacy to such, as a humility.

      These are some of the kinds of things going around in the Latin Church being kept low key /low profile -also as a sort of humility and and then too “deep wisdom”.

      The “de-Europeanizing” of the Church thing is understood as an absolute necessity, a mark of common sense and a particular sensitivity to the Holy Spirit.

      By the way, I have seen Girasoli wear the leopard skins at Masses where the ethnic collectivity didn’t have any such interest.

      What it does is it introduces a waves of nodding and cuteness and acceptance depending where you are in the very diverse ethnic spectrum or if it doesn’t matter to you..

      I have made complaints privately about this leopard skin thing and now Girasoli went and got a whole “Vatican endorsement” on it.

      Where I live Girasoli as Nuncio did not, to my knowledge, sustain seminary reforms introduced by Tabet.

      https://cruxnow.com/church-in-europe/2023/09/papal-envoys-leopard-skin-vestment-stirs-social-media-sensation

  2. There won’t be another pope. The church of the Francis pontificate goes into chaos, bringing God’s intervention and FinalTrial of the church.

  3. “There is an eerie legend related to the portraits in Saint Paul Outside Walls [San Paolo Fuori le Mura]. The portraits represent the 266 popes from St. Peter to Pope Francis. Do you want to know more about this legend? Come to Rome and take one of our Tours. We’ll be glad to show you the 4 major papal basilicas, including Saint Paul Outside Walls… and while we do so, we’ll share its legends and many other stories that are typical of Rome!” (Tours and Experiences in Rome, Italian Ministry for Tourism).
    Good news. St Malachi’s legendary numeration of 266 popes ending with Francis I has been demolished by our resident myth buster. Furthermore, contrary to common belief that the spaces ended with Francis, there remain spaces left for papal portraits adjacent to the ceiling at the Basilica of Saint Paul Outside the Walls. The Italian Tourism Ministry assures us there’s real possibility of future papal elections since there are 26 spaces left.
    Considering, then, that the world may actually not end soon Russell Shaw’s essay is meaningful. Pope Francis is going strong and the papabile are in wait. Although there’s a troubling reality. We have the anomaly of a pontiff who has absorbed absolute power to`himself. Iron fisted. Faithful bishops dismissed at will. A Synod that by all indication is being prepared to become the model structure of an authority shift of power from the Chair of Peter to velvet gloved effetes.

    • “Avoid also foolish and ignorant controversies, knowing that they breed quarrels. But the servant of the Lord must not quarrel, but be gentle towards all, ready to teach, be patient, gently admonishing those who resist, in case God should give them repentance to know the truth, and they recover themselves from the snare of the devil, to whose will they are held captive” (2 Tim 23:26).

  4. So the sentiment includes going DEI to Asia. I guess that means there is a chance next pope will be someone elevated by the Chinese Communist Party. Wouldn’t that be a hoot.

  5. We have to remember, through all the chaos, that Himself remains in charge, and will bring things to an end in His own merciful time. We are supposed to earn our way to Heaven which, after all, is His magnanimous gift.

    • Right on! dear ‘brineyman’.

      Before installation, every elected pope MUST affirm his unshakeable obedience to the creeds. In addition, he MUST solemnly sign a PAFA – a personal affirmation of faith allegiance.

      In view of Francis’ uniquely unfaithful trivializations of the office, nothing less is required of every future pope. This has to be a genuine turning point in papal history – backwardness will no longer be enough.

      Always listening to & following King Jesus Christ; love & blessings from marty

      • Butt, has the game plan been obedient reaffirmation of the creeds combined with exemptions in praxis? As in the homosexual “I have never violated my vow of celibacy,” now writ large?

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