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Analysis: Why Trump will likely carry Catholic-Democratic Pennsylvania

There is an interesting connection between the crisis of faith that plagues this venerable part of Catholic America and why Trump probably will win this key battleground state.

The skyline of Scranton, the largest city in the northeastern part of Pennsylvania. (Image: Wikpedia

President Joe Biden recently attended the funeral of a childhood friend of his at his old parish of St. Paul’s in the Green Ridge section of Scranton. He came quietly, delivered a eulogy in the small neighborhood church on Penn Avenue, and departed quietly. Whatever his exact status as a Catholic in good standing, Biden’s appearance at an Irish-Catholic funeral in this old Catholic town is a mark of the politically Catholic identity of Northeastern Pennsylvania.

The shoots, however, aren’t as Catholic as the roots. There is an interesting connection between the crisis of faith that plagues this venerable part of Catholic America and why Donald Trump will likely carry the battleground state of Pennsylvania in November. Kamala Harris has a serious Pennsylvania problem, as Politico recently examined, and that problem is captured in Pennsylvanians’ longstanding but shifting relationship to the Democratic Party and the Catholic Faith.

As is often noted, there’s no winning the White House without winning Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. For decades, Pennsylvania has had a tie to Democratic presidential candidates. Joe from Scranton was Vice-President on the Obama ticket for two cycles. Hillary Clinton’s father, Hugh Rodham, was from Scranton and is buried there. Then Biden came wheezing back to squeeze out Donald Trump in 2020.

But now, with Biden’s defenestration, Pennsylvania has no connection with the Democratic candidate. Kamala Harris, a Californian white-collar woman of color, doesn’t have the old-world connection that old working-class Joe had with the old working-class world of the Keystone State. She is simply not as marketable a commodity, despite the forced enthusiasm across the “vibing” Democratic base.

Of course, Pennsylvania broke the blue wall and went red in 2016 by a narrow margin. While much is being made over the current neck-and-neck Pennsylvania polls, there is a conservative trend in Democratic Pennsylvania that will probably hand the victory to Trump again. And it is one that is related to the condition of the Catholic Faith there.

Pennsylvania was—and, in some ways, still is—a deeply Catholic region, with grand and beautiful churches dotting the skylines with a striking proliferation, bringing faraway homelands from overseas with the universal care of Holy Mother Church, whether Roman, Byzantine, or Orthodox. There is (or was) a Catholic church in every neighborhood, with many claiming a specific ethnic group, whether Irish, Italian, German, Lebanese, Lithuanian, or Polish. The immigrants brought their strong backs to Pennsylvania along with their strong faith.

Cultural Catholicism, and its cultural conservatism, is inseparable from the character of Pennsylvania. Parish food festivals are a hub of local tradition; timeworn Catholic cemeteries sleep beside every little league field; brick schools, convents, and orphanages erected by holy heroes like Frances Cabrini, John Neumann, Katharine Drexel, and Maria Kaupas still stand; and Scranton’s solemn Novena to St. Ann at the basilica shrine is a tremendous event attended faithfully by thousands every summer.

The European immigrant Catholics who came to Pennsylvania a century ago to work in the coal industry were also Democrat, allied to the labor unions the Democratic Party championed against wealthy Republican mine owners and businessmen. The heritage of being a Catholic Democrat, therefore, runs deep in the region and reflects a different brand of Democrat, though vestiges persist (such as pro-life Democratic Governor Robert Casey, whose 1992’s legislation Planned Parenthood v. Casey proved the case that was instrumental for Dobbs in overthrowing Roe v. Wade).

The decades brought economic decline and hardscrabble times. On the Catholic side of things were dwindling congregations, priest shortages, and the closure or consolidation of many ethnic parishes. Grudges are still nursed in these parts for the unceremonious demolition of old beloved churches like Holy Family Parish, now a parking lot for the Jesuit University of Scranton.

Overall, a disenchantment or disconnection grew among Pennsylvanians for the ethnic protection the Church and the government once fostered together. (Of course, in more recent years, the repulse of abusive priests and shameful diocesan cover-ups took their toll on the morale of Pennsylvanian Catholics in particular.) With loss of commitment to the Church of their ancestors and less confidence in the labor laws that once protected naturalized Americans and their ethnic distinctions, Pennsylvanians have become less Catholic and less Democratic.

Though many still identify as both, according to their ingrained inheritance, all too many Pennsylvanian Catholics do not practice the Faith, and just as many dyed-in-the-wool Pennsylvanian Democrats are beginning to cast Republican ballots, as voter registrations show. In 2016, the voter pool was 48% Democrats and 39% Republicans. Today, the margin is narrower at 44% Democrats to 40% Republicans, with 15% not affiliated.

While the cradle-cafeteria Catholics of the state will feel the lack of a Catholic connection with Kamala Harris instinctually, and they will also continue judging that Republican policies are a better, more conservative, course for the economy, even though they may recall ghosts of GOP hostility. Many easily see or sense that the Party of the Little Guy has become the Party of the Big Government. And Pennsylvanians know what side of their bread is buttered when it comes to fracking.

Kamala Harris is not only not Catholic as this historically Catholic demographic would appreciate, but she also didn’t gain a shred of Catholic confidence by getting prosecutorial on a judge for being a Knight of Columbus (the Knights are big in Pennsylvania) as though he were an ideological extremist. Moreover, her pro-abortion stance is a point of possible contention for the state as well, given the region’s prominent right-to-life history and activity (even though Pennsylvanians may be as divided as the rest of the nation is on this issue of issues).

And so shift the socio-political tides of must-win Pennsylvania. As folks are separating from the Catholic Faith with churches shuttering and parishes shrinking and people shrugging off traditional morals (which is tragic), so are they separating from the Democratic Party as progressives emerge and far-Left ideologies loom (which is fortunate). The political scene is changing in Pennsylvania in the same measure as the Catholic scene is changing—both changes brought on by the changes in the American dreamscape.

Though the economy is always a main concern for the hardworking people of Pennsylvania, the immigration problem is one this immigrant community feels with pointed concern. The way the old neighborhoods are changing is as striking as how Pennsylvanians are changing. The dramatic in-pouring of foreigners is often disorienting. Pennsylvanians may be losing their sense of ethnic heritage as quickly as their Catholic heritage, but they are still a practical people and there is an impractical situation unfolding on Pennsylvanian streets.

While many newcomers are happy, honest, good people (and Catholic, too), it is troubling that their prospects appear hampered by a broken system that ushers people in too quickly to succeed. Many can’t speak English, struggle to find decent work and affordable housing, and seem easily caught up in desperate situations. Pennsylvanians know the importance of immigration, even if they are losing touch with their ethnic heritage. They know in their blood that the opportunity this country affords is sacred and should be handled prudently and legally. Vice President Harris’s record on the border, however, speaks for itself.

Pennsylvania’s fading loyalties to the liberals and, unfortunately, to the Church are bringing many Pennsylvanians around to the red side of their ballots, despite their blue backgrounds. It’s a little odd to imagine that the less Catholic one becomes, the more Republican one becomes, but that’s the curious social trend in Pennsylvania. And while it’s good to see sensible folks turning their backs on the irrational policies of the Left, it is terrible to see them turning their backs on the Church as well, long allied in their psyches as it is with the Democrat Party.

The most important aspect of all our politics, all our social structures, all our laws, all of our elections, is to help people get to heaven. Pennsylvanians may be starting to choose more discernably toward the common good, which may well contribute to short-term improvement in Washington policies, but the ultimate good must regain its priority. Meanwhile, this swing state is swinging conservative and is, for now, is Trump country.


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About Sean Fitzpatrick 27 Articles
Sean Fitzpatrick is a graduate of Thomas Aquinas College and serves on the faculty of Gregory the Great Academy in Elmhurst, Pennsylvania. He teaches Literature, Mythology, and Humanities. Mr. Fitzpatrick’s writings on education, literature, and culture have appeared in a number of journals including Crisis Magazine, Catholic Exchange, the Cardinal Newman Society’s Journal for Educators, and the Imaginative Conservative. He lives in Scranton with his wife, Sophie, and their seven children.

33 Comments

  1. I understand there used to be a connection between the Church and the Democrat Party. My first vote was for Hubert Humphrey in 1968. I was raised to be an Irish Catholic Democrat and remained that UNTIL Roe v Wade. For another 12 years after Roe, I still hoped Teddy or Mario Cuomo would right the Democrat drift to All Abortion All the Time, but after the 1984 Election it was clear a vote for the Democrat Party was a vote for Unlimited Abortion. I had never voted Republican before 1988 and have NEVER voted Democrat since. When Hillary Clinton appears before St. Peter’s in sackcloth and ashes, maybe then i will consider the Democrat Party, but not before.

    • “I understand there used to be a connection between the Church and the Democrat Party.”

      There may not be the connection that existed a few decades ago, when some Catholics in the pews thought voting Democrat was the Eighth Sacrament that allowed not only for the forgiveness of sins-but also a full plenary indulgence.

      This was when a properly adorned Catholic home had a Crucifix and pictures of FDR and JFK, but this connection was only severed in a pyrrhic way-as the faith is attenuated to the point of an ember.

      Funny thing, how as the Bishops became more political; the pewsitters became less religious.

    • Hillary Clinton would have to have the entire Democrat party alongside her in sackcloth and ashes before I’d consider voting for any of their candidates again.

      • I used to think Hillary was the last word in liars, then along came Biden, Harris and Walz. The rot runs through the entire party.

  2. Thank you for this analysis. The choice for a Christian in the coming election is not difficult. One candidate appointed judges to the Supreme Court who overthrew the unconstitutional Roe v. Wade, and a candidate who will leave it to the citizens of each state, in our federal republic, to decide on abortion limits and acceptance. The other candidate promises to make the right to abortion under all circumstances and lengths of gestation a national law regardless of the views of the citizens of each state, even the most Christian states in the republic. BTW, please publicize the video in youtube made by Dr. Anthony Levatino, M.D., Obstetrician, Gynecologist and former abortionist. It is a sobering description of the process of abortion at various stages of gestation. It should be known by the general public especially young women who in school are not told the true details of the matter. This is the link; again, post it in social media if you can:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l7lTMzEs8E

  3. Lot of Ruthenian and Ukrainian Greek Catholics in Pennsylvania, as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are where both Byzantine Archeparchy (diocese) cathedrals are located. Also, I was reading about some other good news for Trump out of PA, it seems that there is a small fraction more registered conservatives in Luzerne county, which is a massive bellweather in the Commonwealth, and that some of the lower income people in the poorer areas of blue Philadelphia are moving towards the right; Harris is seen (rightfully) as a wealthy California elitist with zero respect for human life, and certainly none for Catholics.
    The only thing that I don’t agree in this article is that Biden legally won Pennsylvania 4 years ago. Only after the machines stopped counting and the suitcases came out from under the tables did he “win” Pennsylvania and the other swing states. People in Pennsylvania: A vote for Trump is a vote for lower grocery and gas bills. He can be a rude, brash person, he’s kinda crazy, but he doesn’t live in a bubble like Harris or that immodest Taylor Swift.

    • Stop promoting conspiratorial nonsense and live in the truth. Trump lost PA and the election in 2020. [Also, since you’re apparently gulping the Team MAGA Kool-Aid, the Constitution doesn’t secretly give the vice president the power to reject electoral outcomes.]

      • Vince, I am living in the truth by being a Catholic. Everyone is entitled their opinion about PA and the 2020 election. I just expressed mine as you did yours. That’s what it’s like to live in a free country. I’m not forcing people to accept my opinion, they can draw their own conclusions because they have the freedom to do so, and they should also have the opportunity to express those conclusions without getting censored by Big Brother and The Party.

  4. For a guy who teaches in Elmhurst (just outside of Scranton), you’d think he’d be a little more conscious of the machine’s ability to manufacture votes.

    Outsiders have NO idea how corrupt Scranton really is-and Philadelphia is orders of magnitude worse.

    FYI, Dominion and Xerox say “hi”.

    • Smartmatic voting machines says hello back to you. Chicago is bad too for having questionable election results, look at the 1960 election. Nixon carried Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Virginia, and even Wisconsin, yet lost to JFK because he couldn’t clinch the tipping point states of Illinois and Texas because of obvious corruption in the cities, like what’d you see in Pennsylvania.

    • It’s a little odd to imagine that the less Catholic one becomes, the more Republican one becomes, but that’s the curious social trend in Pennsylvania.

      The Democrat party has become the party of the biggest businesses (multinational corporations), the party of abortion as they were once the party of slavery, and the party of blatantly anti-christian social policy, it is no surprise that Catholics are shifting to the Republican party, which has become the party of the working class and the little guy.

      It’s really not odd at all that the more one remains faithful to traditional Catholic values, the more Republican one becomes, but that’s the current social trend.

  5. Pennsylvania is a toss up. The voters will once again be faced with choosing “the lesser of two evils.” Harris is a hack politician with no scruples, and Trump is a malicious clown. Such a deal. We have not had a really good President since Reagan.

    • Pennsylvania is a toss-up, but if people are smart, they should vote for Trump. He’s too busy and blusterous to act like a clown, I believe that title falls to Kackling Kamala who is both malicious and treasonous.

    • Like it or not, we have to go with the least objectionable of the two candidates that we have. Voting for an unknown is throwing away a vote.

      Pres. Trump has a list of faults as long as my list of faults, including the drinking of way too much Diet Coke!, but isn’t that a more acceptable “fault” than advocating abortion at all stages of pregnancy? Yes, it would be wonderful if he were a one-wife man who has been married to the same loving wife since his 20s, but…he’s not the only man in the country with multiple wives. It would be wonderful if he didn’t have a reputation for philandering, but at least he seems to have given this up as he has gotten older, and his current wife is a beautiful, faith-filled woman who is devoted to their son, Barron, who seems to be an exemplary young man.

      Keep in mind that Pres. Trump was not nor never has been a career politician. He is a businessman (which explains his lack of political savvy and his “diarrhea of the mouth”) who has actually worked for a living, has earned and lost many fortunes, and has raised children who were required to work, not sit around and be fashionistas or playboys. He is a philanthropist who has donated money to many causes that don’t get a lot of publicity. He was the “star” of a very popular reality show back when reality shows were a big deal on television, a ancient device which is no longer a big deal compared to the I-phone and the many entertainment opportunities that this little toy offers its aficionados.

      Go ahead and vote your conscience, but keep in mind that a vote for a 3rd Party unknown candidate is a vote for VP Kamala Harris and her extreme pro-abortion policies, along with her fantastical plans for improving the economy and reducing costs of goods for all of us regular Americans. I do agree with her statements that we need to stand with the Ukraine and against all terrorism, but only a complete degenerate would say anything else–and just what does “stand with the Ukraine” mean anyway?!_-perhaps wearing a pro-Ukraine t-shirt while we walk along scrolling through social media on our phones? Or perhaps joining a pro-Ukraine protest and camp-in at the local college, an event which is really just an excuse to skip classes for several days and create a lot of clean-up expenses for the college grounds crew.

      We need to be wise as serpents and gentle as doves. I think Pres. Trump has already lost the election, but I pray not.

      • If Trump loses, he will go to prison to pay for some of his crimes, and that’s the last we will hear of him. Then the Republican Party can start to rebuild, if there’s anything left. Vance was right when he said Trump is “America’s Hitler”.

        I live in New York which is reliably Democrat. I will vote for Peter Sonski and
        Lauren Onak of the American Solidarity party, which is the only one that represents my interests. My vote won’t change the outcome in my state, but it shows my total dissatisfaction with both major candidates and may generate interest. I bet you are going to look up the American Solidarity Party now.

        I don’t want either Trump or Harris on my conscience.

      • “his current wife is a beautiful, faith-filled woman who is devoted to their son, Barron, who seems to be an exemplary young man.”

        Say what you want about President Trump — he has — apparently — the love and respect of a very worthy woman like the one described in Prov.31:10. To me that says a lot about the core value of any man. I find it interesting that so many — some posters here among them — take more stock in suspicious prosecutions and questionable verdicts for the purpose of political destruction rather than justice.

        • That “faith filled” “very worthy woman” just chose one of her very rare public political statements to vehemently endorse legal abortion.

          Yes Harris is even worse, but let’s not get carried away with Melania.

  6. Never forget that Kamala Harris hates Catholics, as shown by her attacking a nomineee for a judicial appointment due to his membership to the Knights of Columbus while a Senator, and her harassment of pro-life activists (including David Daleiden, who exposed Planned Parenthood’s organ trafficking) while Attorney General of California.

  7. This article hit close to home as I’m from Pennsylvania and catholic. My grandparents were Polish immigrants and I was baptized in one polish parish and went to school at another. Both are sadly closed. I voted for Trump in PA in 2016. Recently we moved to AZ, another swing state. I am praying AZ maintains its republican majority and pro life legislation. My heart is definitely in PA and hope to get back there, but it is definitely a lot different even from when I was a child in the 80s and 90s.

  8. Abortion, women voters, along with their male acolytes, is the bedrock Dem message. They will ride that right up to the election. How that message plays out will determine this election

    • Can a decent human being vote for a Democrat?

      I mean, think about it.

      The Democratic Party is a death cult.

      Democrats favor killing children in utero. At any time. For any reason. By a variety of decidedly horrific methods.

      Dismembering them alive. Searing their skin off. Using steel scalpels to puncture the bases of their skulls.

      And so, entire generations of individuals are canceled out of existence.

      Roughly one-third of all our offspring in this country over the past fifty years, in fact.

      Enough to comprise what is now hideously referred to as “the abortion industry.”

      Baby slaughtering an industry in America?

      Can anyone even conceive of that?

      And for the lucky children who escape that hideous death?

      Democrats are in favor of sterilizing and mutilating them in order to — of all things — “change” their “genders.” Without their parents’ permission, if necessary.

      But that’s not all. Not even close.

      Legalizing drugs; gay “marriage”; the sexualization of children; the green new poverty; the open border fentanyl conduit; the denial of the biologically determined sexes; the racist, divisive Critical Race Theory curriculum — everything the Democratic Party advocates is aimed at denying life and promoting death.

      It’s not even debatable.

      Death is the Democratic Party’s central policy initiative.

      When you vote Democratic, you are voting for death.

  9. Mr. Fitzpatrick seems to have touched all the bases in making a case for a Trump victory in Pennsylvania this cycle. Still, if I may, I’d like to make a couple of related points. When it comes to underhanded, unethical, and downright unlawful election tactics, very few places in this country can top Philadelphia. Maybe the Big (wormy) Apple, and Chicago come close. Maybe, on occasion. I do think there’s one factor the author should have mentioned. Josh Shapiro is a popular and effective governor of a vital battleground state. The fact that the Harris campaign passed him by in the VP stakes for the problematic Tim Walz, apparently to appease the antisemitic Left of the party, may be another problem for Democrats. That, of course, remains to be seen. But Mr. Fitzpatrick’s article, thoughtful though it is, doesn’t match the analytical acumen of Washington Examiner columnist Salena Zito. Those acquainted with her deep-in-the-weeds reportage know it comes from a life-long intimacy that only an observant resident of western Pennsylvania can achieve. She followed Trump’s emergence in 2016, saw his impact on the Keystone State, and predicted his key win there. Her recent columns are leaning that way again. The fact that Fitzpatrick seems to see the same trajectory may be the best evidence supporting his argument.

  10. Only another imbecile would be inclined to vote for someone who was a total imbecile. Let’s remember that the President, as Commander in Chief of the military, has control over the country’s nuclear arsenal. Some want to put that arsenal in the hands of an imbecile.

  11. As a Catholic who voted for Kamala, this election cycle was eye-opening for me. I don’t think I have ever witnessed such hatred and bigtory from fellow Catholics in my life. I was particularly astounded how many priests remained silent when self proclaimed “tradCatholics” were spewing Neo-Nazi eugenics and White Supremacy ideologies. I was confounded when American Bishops condemned progressives for their “diabolical” support for a woman who was simply calling for unity, compassion, and choice while praising a man who does not exemplify a single Christian virtue and exploits our faith for political gains. Although my faith in God is unwavering, it has made be reconsider organized religion in this country. I hear a lot of Christians talk a great deal about Christian virtue, I don’t see it and I don’t feel it. I’ve always wondered why so many good people walk away from the church, but still retain their faith and God… now I know why.

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