How will Trump impact abortion, gender, and migration policies in Latin America?

 

ACI Prensa Staff, Nov 20, 2024 / 11:20 am (CNA).

The incoming administration of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States will have repercussions well beyond the nation’s borders, including in Latin America. How will the new administration in Washington impact issues in the region such as the defense of life, abortion, gender ideology, and migration?

‘Enormous’ and ‘positive’ impact on life, family issues

While several countries in the region have increased access to abortion through legislation — and policies based on gender ideology have also made some concerning advances — a Trump administration could help reverse the tide, according to analysts consulted by ACI Prensa, CNA’s Spanish-language news partner.

For Neydy Casillas, a jurist and vice president of International Affairs at the Global Center for Human Rights based in Washington, D.C., “the impact [of Trump’s election] is enormous.”

“Trump, among his first messages, already came out speaking about very important issues such as, for example, that he’s going to prohibit surgeries or so-called gender affirmation therapies … which are actually the mutilation of children, and even go after doctors who carry out these surgeries,” she emphasized.

Casillas also said Trump could be expected to support policies that restrict abortion funding in other countries.

“In recent years, with the administration of [Joe] Biden and [Kamala] Harris, we had had tremendous pressure from international organizations and also from countries to promote these policies,” especially from the United States, she noted.

Marcial Padilla, director of the Mexican platform ConParticipación, shared a similar perspective. “The change of government in the United States is going to be positive for Latin America, and for Africa as well, on issues such as abortion and gender ideology,” he told ACI Prensa.

With the new government, he predicted, “the suffocating ideological pressure of the Biden-Harris administration to impose both abortion and gender ideology in Latin America and Africa will disappear.”

“If we add to that the fact that the incoming government will most likely have a pro-family foreign policy that is friendly to fundamental values, we could surely have a period of, first, not feeling hostility and pressure; and perhaps we could even find support” to promote pro-family policies, Padilla noted.

Gildardo López, professor at the School of Government and Economics at Pan American University in Mexico City, agreed and highlighted that those who supported the campaign of president-elect Trump “financially and politically” during his administration could end up supporting pro-life and pro-family initiatives “in the rest of Latin America.”

“Just as there is an agenda … of the Sao Paulo Forum … in reference to the international group that emerged in Brazil and brings together left-leaning politicians in Latin America, there is also a cutting-edge agenda of a conservative political spectrum,” he pointed out.

Although there are several Latin American countries governed by left-leaning politicians, in which issues such as abortion and gender ideology continue to “advance,” he said, Trump’s election victory can be “an inspiration” for more politically conservative platforms.

Alfonso Aguilar, director of Hispanic Outreach at the American Principles Project, also expressed confidence that “the new administration will stop promoting abortion and gender ideology around the world and through multilateral organizations as President Biden has done.”

Emili J. Blasco, director of the Center for Global Affairs and Strategic Studies at the University of Navarra in Spain, told ACI Prensa that “specifically in relation to abortion during the election campaign, Trump didn’t give it a special emphasis.” He noted that during Trump’s first term, he made appointments to the country’s Supreme Court that led to decisions “that left the issue to the states.”

“Trump gives the impression that he isn’t going to change anything at the federal level or push anything from the White House,” he said. At the same time, however, Blasco noted that the more conservative wave that brought Trump to power has also turned into a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives that could lead to positive developments.

Trump and migrants

According to statistics from United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP), between October 2023 and September 2024, there were more than 2.1 million encounters by authorities with undocumented migrants on the country’s border with Mexico.

More than 1.2 million were adults traveling alone, while 804,456 were people who crossed the border as part of a family group. Nearly 110,000 of those stopped by authorities were unaccompanied minors.

For Casillas, the issue of migration is “key” and “very sensitive, because we are talking about people and it’s always a very complex issue for both parties.”

Although the Democrats, she said, “have had defending immigrants as their banner,” this is “a big lie, because at the time with [Barack] Obama, for example, they had the opportunity to pass legislation in which they could regulate the issue of migration and they didn’t do it.”

“We have to understand,” he added, that Americans “have the right, like any of our countries, to defend their borders and that no country is obliged to receive absolutely everyone, much less when these people have entered illegally.”

What the Trump administration will seek, she said, is for migrants to enter the United States “legally,” following the regulations, which also covers cases of asylum seekers and refugees.

Marcial Padilla pointed out that Trump’s election also points to “great discontent” among Americans “due to the laxity with which the Biden-Harris administration” addressed the immigration problem.

“Most likely, there will be first of all greater order and control in the way in which people not only enter the United States but also join its productive sector,” he said.

However, he emphasized that “I think that Latin American countries should ask and almost demand from the United States that if they have the dominant economy in the world and don’t like the existence of disorderly migration, they should also contribute to the existence of better international trade conditions that make mass migration to the United States unnecessary.”

Alonso Aguilar predicted that “the Trump administration’s policy will seek to discourage unregulated mass migration that puts at risk the safety of the migrants themselves who try to come to the United States.”

“Trump will continue with generous legal immigration policies, but he will close the door to illegal entry,” Aguilar said.

Gildardo López believes the region “must prepare for a more hostile environment toward migrants,” due to Trump’s messaging about possible punitive measures, especially for Mexico, as a transit country for many migrants who come from other countries in Latin America and the world.

Furthermore, mass deportations of undocumented migrants could be “a breeding ground for a social explosion” in their countries of origin.

In this regard, Blasco said that “Trump has made great progress in the campaign on measures against immigration, and he is going to implement them. I don’t know how effective they will be, because in his first term he also [promoted] the issue of the wall, in the end [building] the wall didn’t get that far either, although there were clearly policies against immigration.”

The fear among migrants is understandable, Blasco said, including among “people from Venezuela who continue to want to leave the country; countries like Haiti, who see no other opportunity for life than to leave Haiti, and therefore go to the United States; or in Central America; and no matter what Trump says, or whatever policies there are, they will continue trying to enter the United States illegally.”

“Those people, yes, it’s logical that they are afraid that the door will be closed, or they will not be able to enter, or if they enter, that they will be detained,” Blasco commented.

Possibility of congruence

Casillas believes that the election of Trump, with a trend that seems to be repeated with other presidents in the region, could lead to the emergence of more parties in Latin America with agendas more in line with each other.

“People want things defined” and for politicians to forget about “all these agendas that have nothing to do with the main needs that people are facing.”

“It’s been shown, especially with this election of Trump and even with that of [Javier] Milei [in Argentina], that people don’t want this socialist plan where children are taken from their parents, where abortion is imposed without restrictions, where gender ideology is promoted left and right.”

Aguilar’s ​​opinion goes in the same direction: “I think Trump has already inspired many leaders in the region and will continue to do so.”

“Trump will continue to offer public support to conservative leaders in the region, and that support will have even more impact now that he is president,” he emphasized.

Padilla, however, is skeptical that Trump’s election will favor like-minded political parties in the region.

“It cannot be guaranteed or assured that the result in the United States will be replicated in other geographic realities, because ultimately the voters will have different factors for making decisions that must be adapted to their national realities,” he said.

When asked if he thinks Trump’s victory can inspire other politicians with similar profiles in Latin America, Blasco said: “I think so. Maybe not in a very strong way, but on the one hand, it does encourage people who are against gender ideology, for example, to see that there is someone in another country” who is taking that stand.

Latin America’s pro-Trump politicians

Politicians who support Trump in the region, such as Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador; Milei; and former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro; have already reached out to the president-elect, who will take office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Bukele said on X Nov. 7 that he spoke by phone with Trump and congratulated him “on his sweeping victory.” The president of El Salvador said they spoke about “the strong mandate he received from the American people and the significance his election holds for the world.”

According to the Spanish news agency EFE, Bolsonaro — currently disqualified from holding public office by a court ruling — celebrated Trump’s election victory, which, added to congratulation from Milei’s and municipal victories of the center-right in Brazil, would mean that, “the whole world is turning to the right. They are fed up with the ‘woke’ agenda, they are fed up with the issue of diversity. They are fed up with family values ​​being attacked.”

After recalling his “excellent relationship” with Trump, Bolsonaro expressed his desire to become president again after losing in the 2022 elections to the current president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: “They know that if I am a candidate, I will win in 2026.”

Manuel Adorni, presidential spokesman for Milei, expressed his government’s congratulations to Trump on Nov. 6, calling him “an exponent of the free Western and capitalist world.”

“His leadership will find unconditional support from our country to defend life, liberty, and property,” he said.

Trump to Milei: ‘You are my favorite president’

On the morning of Nov. 12, Adorni wrote on X: “The president of the nation, Javier Milei, had a telephone conversation with the President-elect of the United States Donald Trump.” Minutes later, in a new post, he said: “Donald Trump to President Javier Milei: ‘You are my favorite president.’”

On Nov. 14, Milei arrived in the United States to meet with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, becoming the first president in the world to do so.

At dinner that evening, organized by the America First Policy Institute, Milei congratulated Trump “for the greatest political comeback in history, taking on the entire political establishment, even putting his own life at risk.”

It was “a true miracle and conclusive proof that the forces of heaven are on our side,” he added.

Trump then thanked Milei for his words and congratulated him for doing “a fantastic job in a very short period of time” and quipped “Make Argentina Great Again. You know MAGA. He’s a MAGA person. And you know he’s doing that.”

This story was first published by ACI Prensa, CNA’s Spanish-language news partner. It has been translated and adapted by CNA.