Any number of legitimate reasons could be adduced for why Donald Trump won the election.
But I think the better angle is to account for why Kamala Harris lost it, especially considering how broad was her defeat.
As a threshold matter, nothing in my analysis is meant to deny the importance of economic concerns. The highest inflation in 40 years, especially for inelastic goods such as groceries and household products, was certainly an important factor in the minds of many voters. That said, however, the roots of Harris’s loss are much deeper than the failure of her and Joe Biden’s economic policies.
Economics ebbs and flows, regardless of the party in charge. But this election signaled a seismic cultural shift. And it’s a shift that the left seems to be ontologically incapable of understanding.
This is why the perspective of Harris’s loss, rather than Trump’s win, is a more useful posture for understanding what happened on November 5. Trump didn’t win because a majority of Americans enthusiastically agree with his policy positions. Rather, Harris lost because we have a visceral dislike for hers.
Moreover, we are fed up with the relentless dishonesty of the legacy media that served as Harris’s propaganda arm.
So, while the Democratic party and its media messengers insist that Trump won because 51% of the population is racist, misogynist, and xenophobic—bless them—we can consider some actual factors.
Against abortion absolutism
First, unlike Harris, Americans are not pro-abortion absolutists. While a majority of Americans want some level of abortion access, none but the activists think that there should be no limits. Moreover, regardless of their relative positions on abortion regulation, a majority of Americans told us on November 5 that abortion does not drive every voting decision.
Consider, for example, the vote in Florida. Amendment 4 would have codified abortion on demand without any meaningful exceptions. The amendment failed, but only because a vote of 60% plus one person was required. A majority of Floridians—57%—voted in favor of the Amendment. But a similar majority—56%—voted for Trump for president. Many voters opted for the amendment but against Harris. (Similar results obtained in Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and Nevada.) That tells us that some people who voted for Amendment 4 were not animated by abortion-absolutism, as Harris is.
Of course, I understand that Trump has backtracked on the issue, which might have made even a pro-choice voter more likely to vote for him. But this would not have satisfied the True Believers, who are far fewer in number than Harris thought.
Harris ran as The Abortion Candidate. That’s one reason she lost.
Rejecting trans ideology
Another important factor for Harris’s loss, arising late in the campaign, is Americans’ decision to put the brakes on transgender lunacy. In the last few weeks of the campaign, Republicans ran ads in several states that highlighted Harris’s commitment to extreme trans ideology.
The ads used an interview clip from the 2020 primary campaign, in which Harris endorsed using federal tax dollars for so-called gender transition surgery for prison inmates and detained undocumented immigrants. And they included ominous images of biological males competing against women in basketball and swimming. As a recent piece in The Washington Post noted, “Trump advisers could not believe how well the ad tested.”
It tested well because a majority of Americans are starting to realize how extreme trans ideology is; and thus how urgent it is to resist it. Harris’s pick of Tim Walz as her running mate illustrates the issue. Minnesota puts feminine hygiene products in boys’ restrooms, starting in 4th grade. Girl athletes in schools are forced to compete against boys, the only test of which is a boy’s assertion that he identifies as a girl on any particular day.
Additionally, a Minnesota law allows the state to assert jurisdiction over minor children from other states in order to subject them to mutilating surgery, puberty blockers, and cross-hormone therapy, even against their parents’ wishes.
Americans do not want our daughters and sisters to be forced to compete against men. We do not believe that one can change genders. We do not believe that minors can meaningfully consent to mutilating surgery and chemical castration. And we do not want to be exposed to civil or criminal liability for calling a man a man and a woman a woman. Harris and her party do. That’s why she—and they—lost.
If you value the news and views Catholic World Report provides, please consider donating to support our efforts. Your contribution will help us continue to make CWR available to all readers worldwide for free, without a subscription. Thank you for your generosity!
Click here for more information on donating to CWR. Click here to sign up for our newsletter.
Imagine you have 40 people who are typical of the voting public in the election. In 2020, 19 of them voted for Trump, 21 for Biden. In this election, 21 voted for Trump, and 19 voted for Harris. That’s one person out of 40 changing his mind. That’s not a seismic cultural anything. It’s a seismic swing in near-term political POWER, but that’s just because we have a winner-takes-all system that means small changes in the vote tallies can have wildly disproportionate effects on politics.
What might be a seismic swing is that the GOP has accepted the narrative that protecting the lives of the unborn is too controversial for winning politics, and that winning is what REALLY matters — and, to double down on the seismic aspect of this, many, probably most Catholics agree with that. Some are content to have the right to life defended at the state level. They’re none to keen to have freedom of speech or freedom of religion decided at the state level, but, you know, those are REAL, meaning they affects THEM, not some unborn kid they have never met.
No. It’s just that most people aren’t one dimensional thinkers and one issue voters.
OK, it’s 2 people out of 40, or 1 out of 20. It’s a small swing in the overall percentages, regardless. We remain essentially split down the middle either way, and, honestly, most people who changed their vote probably did so for a list of reasons, but the foremost reason was likely not a dawning awareness of the depravity of abortion or the LGBTQ movement. It was more likely a reaction against inflation or the realization that Harris seems every bit as unfit to lead the nation as Biden. Neither of those are really cultural shift reasons.
As someone who has worked in the trenches of the pro-life movement for more than half a century, I am glad that conservatives are sensible enough to downplay abortion on the national stage. In our crumbling civilization, now even abandoned by the moral cowardice of many in our Church, abortion is a losing issue and needs to be downplayed for electability while still maintaining pro-life policies that affect the judiciary and budget, domestic and international.
I agree that there isn’t any huge cultural shift to the right. Another candidate who supported all the things that Harris supports but put less emphasis on it– in other words, didn’t talk about it as much– could easily have won the presidency. Trump barely received a majority of the popular vote and might well have lost in an electoral (if not popular) landslide to a cagier Democrat who talked more about the economy. When I went looking for local Republican candidates’ opinions on abortion on their web sites, I found that they were mostly silent on abortion (which caused me to cast write-in votes for those offices). Silence can be interpreted in a number of ways, but what is obvious is that many Republicans may well be just as far left on abortion as Democrats– they just are playing the “don’t ask, don’t tell” game. And, yes, the winner-take-all rules in most states’ selection of presidential electors magnifies what was really a small difference in the popular vote. Even a viable third-party candidate who received as little as 5% of the vote could have turned things the other way.
3 million votes is not a “small difference” in the popular vote 🙄.
Yes to everything you have said here. WE are not evil or crazy. THEY (some of them) ARE, and they move to enforce their far left policies on the population at large ( such as pertains to transgenderism, that defy logic and common sense.)Not to mention FBI intimidation of ordinary Americans going to school board meetings and registering unhappiness at their kids being sexually indoctrinated with garbage. ALSO: The weaponization of our justice system, the open borders allowing criminals and thugs to flow unchecked into the country, pushing our own kids out of schools and hospitals and bankrupting small towns with the need to support thousands of illegals.The DEMs dogged lawfare to STOP any sensible rules to validate voters, like voter ID. Their disgusting mission to fight any such laws in court.
We want a WALL, NOW!!! There is no point in deporting people if they are sent back home and then cross the border into our nation immediately again. JAIL them first for several years,and build the wall while they are there. THEN deport them. As fast as you can. I have no sympathy for those who break our laws, and I dont care about their reason.
The jails are full now
You can’t let people into our welfare country with no rails – we’ll go broke.
I think the answer is that the Democrats were playing more to their affluent donor class & had lost touch with the working class. There’s been a seismic shift in the 2 parties & the Democrat’s failed to realize that because they’ve become so out of touch.
Go on MSNBC and watch Joe talk about butter prices; his friend warned him a week before the election Trump would win just considering the cost of butter.
The print and spend Biden decisions did not work.
I agree with this. President Trump not only appealed to the working class, but he has for many decades actually provided them with employment in his businesses, especially construction! It’s so unusual to find viable political candidates who are not lawyers The U.S. Constitution never intended for all our politicians to be lawyers!
Pres. Trump was just a “working man” essentially–he was “the Boss”, but he still spent most of his life WORKING–managing various companies–and it’s interesting that we haven’t seen a plethora of books and articles written by or about his employees in which they criticize their “boss”. I’m sure writers have looked for the disgruntled, angry employees who hate their former boss–but we sure haven’t seen any stories on TV or in print about these folks. Just the opposite–many of his employees liked their boss and still do!
I strongly suggest reading VP Mike Pence’s autobiography. Yes, the ending of his relationship with Pres. Trump was sad, but throughout the book, VP Pence has so much praise for the way Donald Trump handled himself as POTUS, and makes the point that Pres. Trump often asked his VP to pray for him and certain situations. VP Pence’s bio paints quite a different picture of Pres. Trump than the secular media.
According to VP Pence, Pres. Trump definitely recognized his lack of political experience (he had no idea what he was supposed to do the night he won the election in 2016!), and according to VP Pence, SURPRISE! Pres. Trump did not talk much during Cabinet meetings, although he occasionally asked questions and took notes.
This is a far different picture than the secular media presents, in which a belligerent Pres. Trump bullies everyone around him and force them to accept his way! VP Pence also discusses Pres. Trump’s graciousness and his kindness to his staff.
I also think it behooves us to study First Lady Melania Trump. During her husband’s first term, Melania kept a low profile, but…when the media started criticizing Barron Trump (her and Pres. Trump’s only child) and spreading rumors that he was autistic or learning-disabled-and he was just a child in 2016!–she promptly packed her and her son’s bags and moved with him to the top floor of a NYC penthouse apartment in one of the Trump buildings–and we seldom heard from her again, and we heard no more speculation and gossip about the young Barron Trump, who has turned out to be an admirable young man.
I am very impressed with all of Pres. Trump’s children, but one incident stands out in my mind. A few years ago, the Trumps attended a funeral, and Barron was walking with his father when the two of them came to a curb. Donald Trump seemed to have a little difficulty stepping up on that curb (I relate–even though I’ve had a knee replacement, I still have to work to get up steps, curbs, hills, and it does hurt a little). Immediately, Barron offered his father his arm and helped him up the curb and walked arm in arm with him–I was so touched by this and impressed with the kind act of a son towards his father. NONE OF THE MEDIA COMMENTED ON THIS KIND ACT! But the obvious conclusion is that Barron, along with the rest of the Trump children, has been taught good manners and kindness.
Think for a minute–have any you read anything negative about Pres. Trump from his servant staff? Just the opposite–his elevator operator had nothing but good things to say about his boss! And you know that these folks could collect a large fee for “ratting” about their former boss to the media! But they don’t. (I’m sure Pres. Trump’s critics would say that these “little people” are terrified about retribution from their former boss!).
Yes, Donald Trump has been a philanderer when it comes to women–but not in recent years (at least since 2016–that’s 8 years!). And I question whether he has ever treated women badly–I’m a woman, and I believe that it’s possible the women who are accusing him of bad behavior are just trying to get a lot of money! I also suspect that they are getting money from Pres. Trump’s political enemies for going public with sordid stories about him.
So in conclusion, I respectfully suggest that we try to sort out facts and fiction about our new President and his family, and don’t believe what pro-choice people say about him. They are lying about abortion, trying to convince Americans that abortion doesn’t kill a human being. They are kidding themselves about transition surgeries. Their interest in “the working class” is highly questionable. They are trying to convince us all to buy electric cars and solar power, while inflation makes it difficult for us to afford groceries! They are unwilling to send illegal immigrants who are criminals back to their home countries. And most of them are fabulously wealthy themselves, although they deride Donald Trump for his wealth. These are not people who care for us or have any respect for God.
Reason 3: Because she is, quite simply, a disgusting person. Harsh, but true. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not this time.
And Mr. Trump’s character?
Well, he’s not a groomer, he doesn’t support mutilating children, he doesn’t support unlimited abortion up until the time of birth, he doesn’t support open borders or giving criminals a pass, so that’s not a bad start as fare as I’m concerned. Supporting Harris is defending the indefensible, morally and politically.
It seems that a majority of voters view Trump as the classic “lesser of two evils.” I don’t like him, but he won, and won fair and square. The Republicans also won the Senate and House.
Trump can implement his agenda, which may not be exactly what he said. I suspect that tariffs might be less than advertised. Tariffs can hurt the economy and Elon and billionaires won’t like it.
Maybe woke is finally awake.
no, they’re sulking in the principal’s office
The American people made the right decision in ousting the Democrats. But despite the differences in domestic policy, both parties pretty much agree on foreign policy. That’s unfortunate, because our current foreign policy mainly consists in endless, pointless overseas intervention. It’s long past time to bring the boys home and to stop trying to run the entire world.
A little girls dream of empowerment limitation… the fact is Kamala Harris was short of time, race factor neither white or black, absolutely has controversial ideology, of the “Potential Politicization Games Pro Life, Transgender, and Immigration from the start” from being activist and hard core criminal lawyer… I was absolutely correct from my perspective Analysis from the moment she declared herself a running Democrat President elected, SHE WILL NOT BECOME THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT OF AMERICA… FOREMOST SEX STATUS QUO… AN ABSOLUTE INGENIOUS WOMAN AMERICANS STILL UNACCEPTABLE AS PRESIDENT. IN ADDITION, A MAN DESTINED ADORED BY SO MANY WOMEN STILL BELIEVES IN HYPOCRISY OF SEXINESS OF THE MANS WORLD.
Biden was clearly a puppet, a “useful idiot”, of the Democrat chieftains. Biden was used to continue the “Fleecing of America” by the Democrat mega-donars who were rewarded 1,000-fold for every donated dollar with stolen tax-payer dollars. Harris would have been another puppet, all affirmative-action fluff (and no redeeming skills or aptitude).
Too soon to tell before the mid-terms if there has been a sustainable cultural shift. Then of course the democrats and their allied RINO’s are historically more moderate running for office and less moderate governing in office.
Like Whitmer, she hung a lot of economic and social laundry on the “reproductive freedom” line
when she couldn’t tell ABC one thing she would have done differently, then that’s about 10 red caution flags; time outs coach or whatever you’d like to name it
Much of the media (e.g., NBC and other TV networks, along with print media folks) have discussed this amazing comment in depth and concluded that THIS COMMENT was what lost her the election. It showed an alarming lack of comprehension of what the Democratic policies under Pres. Biden have done to the U.S. and a willingness to continue those damaging policies. It also made it clear that VP Harris considers abortion rights and LGBTQ+ policies (including transition surgeries) more important than the economy and immigration, both of which affect all Americans, including LBGTQ+ individuals!
Whether or not Pres. Biden’s policies really did create the inflation that resulted in a Big Mac and fries costing us $12 (!!!), or an influx of criminals streaming over our borders illegally (along with non-criminals, who came in such large numbers that Texas didn’t have the staff or resources to deal with them and started bussing them to liberal big cities like Chicago)–the fact is, VP Harris, perhaps out of admirable loyalty to her Boss and loyalty to her Democratic Party, or perhaps out of lack of comprehension (which is what most people believe)–essentially said “All was good!”
I’m guessing that every person on her campaign committee sighed when she made that comment and said, “Oh, well, she just lost this election.”
And I’m guessing that many people watching that interview or reading about it online sighed and said, “Yikes! I don’t like him as a person, but I’m voting for Trump!”
Just goes to show–we all need to be more careful about what we say!
in MI Rogers lost the seat by under 20k I believe, to Slotkin; many voters came in and voted only for Trump and left everything else blank
Occasionally we find “conviction” politicians. But most politicians just
want to win – they want power, money, success. In the 1970s many Democratic
politicians including Kennedy, Biden, were pro life. As public opinion, swayed
by left wing media and celebrities moved pro abortion, these politicians and others followed,all the while trumpeting their Catholic bona fides while most bishops refused to
discipline any of them. Ditto for same-sex “marriage.”
It is no surprise we are where we are on abortion or marriage. There are
no pro-life, pro-family, pro marriage political parties.
Yes, the relentless dishonesty was off putting. Karine Jean-Pierre would choke on a truth. Clearly, Biden was not making presidential decisions. Everyone knew his mind was shot before he was “elected”. Harris lost largely because she was Biden 2.0.
“We have serious problems and we need serious people to solve them.”
Andrew Shephard, POTUS
Let’s keep in mind the simple fact that she never won a single delegate on her own – NOT ONE.
Let’s remember that when she dropped out of the race in 2020 she said – “America is not ready for a woman of color to be President.” With around 1% of the vote she plays the race card and the gender card to explain why she’s dropping out.
Let’ remember that even 4 years ago Trump referred to Biden as ‘Dementia Joe’ – cruel but true. It was obvious even then and it has only gotten worse since then. Their debate last summer, featuring “we beat Medicare” was the obvious reason that Biden was forced out – the man is in obvious cognitive decline and the fact that such a person is the most powerful man in the world is a fact for which the democrats will answer to history.
It is weird that some Americans, including politicians, are willing and ready to offer “assisted suicide” to Americans, including those who are elderly and suffering from advanced dementia. But many of those same Americans were willing to allow Pres. Biden to continue to be the POTUS even when his cognitive decline seemed to be obvious.
On the other hand, I am not at all certain that he has dementia. During his political career, he’s never been known as an eloquent speaker or communicator. (And Prs. Trump certainly is no Great Communicator either, but no one except liberals accuse him of having dementia!)
Many of us these days, even younger people, stumble over words and phrases and blank out on names–there is so much information and much of it is available online, which means that we don’t have the reinforcement of a human being speaking to us face to face.
On social media or online forums like this one, we can type and re-type our comments, Google names and places that we don’t remember, and appear to be quite eloquent online! But if we were speaking in person, we would probably stumble and bumble and correct ourselves and forget what the capital of North Dakota is and who that guy was the won the most Olympic swimming medals and we would look positively senile and possibly rude or belligerent to boot!
I wish Pres. Biden the best and hope that he has many good, productive years ahead. And I pray that he will get really serious about his Catholic faith and repent of his support of abortion.
I hope that VP Harris doesn’t decide to run again, and I hope NO woman runs with a main platform of “reproductive rights.”
Mr. Biden has experienced some sort of real decline in health, at least since 2020, but not being his physician I certainly don’t know the nature of that.
Perhaps we have become fickle and uneducated, childish, selfish and complacent as a nation. We want immediate gratification and jump at easy, simplistic solutions. We want to be entertained and thrive on sound bites and blinking screen shots. Our brains have been numbed into passively. The candidates presented to us gave little choice and represent the moral bankruptcy of our society. The only way out is a mass turing from self to God.
What an elitist, bigoted perspective. Maybe, just maybe, people thoughtfully and carefully considered the issues and the candidates and made an educated, responsible decision regarding who to vote for. The fact that your candidates lost, and lost soundly and dramatically, doesn’t mean that everyone is an idiot except you. You have some serious self-reflecting to do if you thought Harris deserved your vote.
“Lies. Damn lies. And statistics.” Do what you want with numbers but the reality of this election is that it does represent a seismic shift in the mindset of the American citizen. We’re sick and tired of being silenced and equally sick and tired of a Catholic Church that all too often seems devoid of any St. Michael fortitude. This was an election between evil and good, and the Good Lord has granted us reprieve in order to return to living as “One nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all” — but while His mercy is boundless, his patience is not.
Amen! Although I do believe that the Catholic Church, at least in my state, worked heroically during this election to see pro-life candidates elected. Numerous rallies and demonstrations were held in my city by Catholic organizations, and priests and religious joined these. Also, the Catholic press (which I’m sure many Catholics never read!) was full of information about the candidates. And our priest (and I’m sure other priests did the same) spoke about the importance of voting pro-life from his pulpit during Mass!
Sadly, in my state, abortion and transgender surgery are now legal and acceptable after an amendment was passed. I fear that it’s not the Church that didn’t come out fighting–I think a lot of people just don’t vote because they think it’s a waste of time, or in some cases, because they don’t have transportation to the polls or because they live in a dangerous neighborhood and don’t go out unless they have to. The evil amendment passed by only a few thousand votes. God help us all!
The actual spread in 2020 was 4.5%….in 2024 it’s right at 2.0%. So the 1 person out of 40 changing their mind is far from the reality.
More interestingly, the “great” Obama, Hillary, and Kamela ALL totalled roughly 66 million votes. The anomoly was Scranton Joe who totalled 81 million votes. So the real question is where did those extra 15 million rabid Democrat voters come from in 2020 AND where did they disappear to in 2024??? They did NOT go to Trump as his total is almost 3 million LESS in 2024 versus 2020!
Trump beat Kamela by roughly 3 million. So, bottom line is Kamela’s “loss” of 15 million 2020 democrat voters got trumped by DJT’s loss of only 3 million from his 2020 total.
And, of course, someone should investigate just who those 15 million Kamela lost are and where they DISAPPEARED TO!!!
This election is just a tiny blip in history, a drastic shift from port to starboard, where the ship of State will once again list and take on water. Both political extremes lack basic Christian morality, but in different ways. A good end cannot be achieved by a bad means. Any government is only as good as the people who run it.