Rome Newsroom, Dec 8, 2024 / 18:36 pm (CNA).
A record 140 cardinals may attend an eventual conclave in the Sistine Chapel. There would have been 141, but Cardinal Miguel Angel Ayuso Guixot’s death on November 25 reduced the number by one. In all, the Sacred College now has 255 members.
The number of cardinal electors is the most critical data point to emerge from this weekend’s consistory. Of the 140 cardinal electors, 110 have been created by Pope Francis, 24 by Benedict XVI, and six by St. John Paul II. At the end of the year, on December 24, Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, created cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2007, will reach 80 years of age and will, therefore, no longer be able to participate in a conclave.
Another 14 cardinals will turn 80 in 2025. They are Cardinals Christoph Schoenborn, Fernando Vergez Alzaga, Celestino Aos Braco, George Alencherry, Carlos Osoro Sierra, Robert Sarah, Stanislaw Rylko, Joseph Coutts, Vinko Pulhić, Antonio Canizares Llovera, Vincent Nichols, Jean-Pierre Kutwa, Nakellentuba Ouédraogo and Timothy Radcliffe.
Two of these were created by St. John Paul II, four by Benedict XVI and eight by Pope Francis.
However, it will be necessary to wait until May 2026 to return to the figure of 120 cardinal electors established by St. Paul VI and never abrogated.
Pope Francis’s choices
For the first time, there is now a cardinal in Iran, Archbishop Dominique Matthieu of Tehran-Ispahan, a Belgian missionary. It is also the first time there is a cardinal in Serbia, with Archbishop Ladislav Nemet of Belgrade receiving the red hat.
Pope Francis has created cardinals from 72 different nations, and 24 of those nations have never had a cardinal before.
Pope Francis has also shown that he does not choose based on the traditional seats of cardinals. For example, there are no cardinals to lead the two historic European patriarchates of Lisbon and Venice, nor in Milan, Florence, or Paris.
There are exceptions, however. In this consistory, Pope Francis created cardinals in the archbishops of Turin, Naples, Lima, Santiago de Chile, Toronto, and the vicar general of the Diocese of Rome.
Naples entered the list somewhat surprisingly, with the pope’s decision communicated in a statement from the Holy See Press Office on November 4. Archbishop Battaglia of Naples replaced Bishop Bruno Syukur of Bogor, Indonesia, who had asked Pope Francis to remove him from the list of new cardinals for unspecified personal reasons.
The geographical balance of the College of Cardinals
The pope did not decide to replace a possible Indonesian cardinal with another cardinal from Asia.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Italian cardinals in the College of Cardinals is the lowest ever, at least in modern times. Only during the so-called Avignon Captivity (1309-1377) was the percentage of Italian cardinals so low.
However, to Italy’s 17 must be added Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who is included in the quota of Asia, and Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, ordinary of Mongolia, also in Asia.
Cardinal Angelo Becciu is instead considered a non-elector, but this status is still being determined. Pope Francis had asked him to renounce his prerogatives as a cardinal but has continued to invite him to consistories and Masses, where he has always sat among the cardinals. If a decision is not made before then, the College of Cardinals, with a majority vote, will decide whether or not Cardinal Becciu will be admitted to the conclave.
Regional distribution
The balance crucially stays the same. Europe has received three more cardinals, in addition to the four Italians with the right to vote: Archbishop Ladislav Nemet of Belgrade (58 years old), Archbishop Rolandas Makrickas (52), coadjutor archpriest of the papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore since March, and Dominican Father Timothy Radcliffe (79). Europe now has 55 cardinals.
Latin America has received five new cardinals. The purple has arrived in dioceses that have received it several times — with Archbishop Carlos Gustavo Castillo Mattasoglio (74) in Lima and Archbishop Fernando N. Chomali Garib (67) in Santiago de Chile — or only once — with Archbishop Luis Gerardo Cabrera Herrera (69) in Guayaquil, Ecuador and Archbishop Jaime Spengler (64, who is also president of CELAM) in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
The red birretta to Archbishop Vicente Bokalic Iglic (72) of Santiago del Estero is also a first. However, in this case, the ground had already been prepared by the recent decision to move the title of primate of Argentina from Buenos Aires to this seat. Overall, Latin America now has 24 cardinals (including Cardinal Celestino Aos Braco, emeritus of Santiago de Chile, born in Spain).
Asia has received four new cardinals. The pope gave the red hat to Archbishop Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi of Tokyo, 66, and to the bishops of two dioceses that have never had a cardinal at the helm: Bishop Pablo Vigilio Siongo David, 65, of Kalookan in the Philippines and Archbishop Dominique Joseph Mathieu, 61, of Tehran.
Africa has received two new cardinals, bringing the continent’s total to 18. The two new ones are Archbishop Jean-Paul Vesco, 62, in Algiers, and Archbishop Ignace Bessi Dogbo, 63, in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
North America now has 14 electors, with the addition of Toronto Archbishop Francis Leo (53). Oceania has four electors, with the creation of Bishop Mykola Bychok of the eparchy of Saints Peter and Paul in Melbourne of the Ukrainians as cardinal. At 44, he has become the youngest member of the College of Cardinals.
National representation
Italy remains the most represented nation in the conclave, with 17 electors (plus two more in Asia). The United States has 10 cardinal electors, and Spain has 7 (with another 3 in Morocco, Chile, and France).
Brazil has increased to 7 electors, and India to 6 electors. France remains at 5 electors, to which Archbishop Vesco in North Africa has been added. Cardinal François-Xavier Bustillo, bishop of Ajaccio, is anagraphically Spanish although naturalized French.
Argentina and Canada join Poland and Portugal with four cardinal electors, while Germany is tied with the Philippines and Great Britain with three.
The weight of cardinal electors engaged in the Curia, in other Roman roles or the nunciatures, has decreased, like that of the Italians. They will be 34 out of 140, a historic low.
Of the 21 new cardinals, 10 (all electors) belong to religious orders and congregations, another record. The number of religious electors in the Sacred College has risen from 27 to 35. The Friars Minor joined the Salesians at five and surpassed the Jesuits, who remain at 4. The Franciscan family grows to 10 electors (5 Minors, 3 Conventuals, and 2 Capuchins). The Lazarists and Redemptorists rise to 2.
What would a possible conclave be like?
As of December 8, Pope Francis has created 78% of the cardinals who can vote in a conclave. This means that the cardinals created by Pope Francis far exceed the two-thirds majority needed to elect a pope.
This does not necessarily mean that the conclave will be “Francis-like.” Not only do the new cardinals all have very different profiles, but they have yet to have much opportunity to get to know each other. Popes have also used consistories to bring together cardinals to discuss issues of general interest.
Pope Francis had done so only three times: in 2014, when the family was discussed; in 2015, when the topic was the reform of the Curia; and in 2022, when the apostolic constitution Praedicate Evangelium, or the reform of the Curia now defined and promulgated, was discussed.
In this last meeting, the cardinals were divided into linguistic groups, with fewer opportunities to speak in the assembly together. This scenario makes the vote very uncertain.
Another fact that should be noted is that until St. John Paul II’s election, the cardinals gathered in the conclave were housed in makeshift accommodations in the Apostolic Palace near the Sistine Chapel. John Paul II had the Domus Sanctae Marthae (St. Martha House) renovated precisely to guarantee the cardinals who would elect his successor more adequate accommodations.
Today, however, Pope Francis lives in the Domus Sanctae Marthae. This means that, upon the pope’s death, at least the floor where the pontiff lives must be sealed, as the papal apartment is sealed. Sealing a floor of the Domus also means losing a considerable number of rooms. And with such a high number of voters, it also means risking not having enough rooms to accommodate all the cardinals.
The electors could be placed in vacant apartments within Vatican City State. This, however, would make them even more isolated. In practice, there is a risk that, during the conclave, the cardinals would not always be able to be together to discuss the election.
For these reasons, although Pope Francis has created more than two-thirds of the cardinal electors, it is by no means certain that the pope chosen in a future conclave will have the same profile as Pope Francis.
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But…but…but…we’re told that it is the Holy Spirit that elects the Pope. Which is it – the Cardinal-electors or the Holy Spirit?
When asked about the 1958 Conclave, Cardinal Siri toward the end of his life let slip “what happened was too horrible.”
It continues.
Cardinal Siri, author of “Gethsemani: Reflections on the Contemporary Theological Movement” (Franciscan Herald Press, 1981), still very worthy of attention as a critique of pointy-headed historicism and what is now summarized as “time is greater than space.”
For example, from Siri, in his criticism of Karl Rahner: “[Rahner’s] Pluralism is a grave event, because it expresses, as we have just said, anything but a holy modesty before the immensity of things unknown. It is the formal negation of Revelation, of all content of a moral and spiritual order which is signified in the natural order of the creation. It is the negation of the internal order of the word of man. Such is the transcendental pluralism to which a large part of present day theologies testify [Rahner, Kung, Schillegeeckx, walking together with a host of earlier and secular intellectuals]” (p. 350).
The Holy Spirit indwells the Church and surely is at work even in every conclave, but the electors still have the un-rescinded gift of Free Will–by which they might choose to elect by strategic calculation, or by the impulse of the moment, or by serpentine pride, or clericalist tribalism, or the zeitgeist, or simple ignorance or stupidity….
Or, by maturity and grace in accord with the stature of Jesus Christ! Welcome to a fallen and redeemed world, always both.
That’s a good question, and I’m not sure the answer is as clear as we might suppose. Given Francis’ support and protection of sexual predators in the church, his hostility to the Latin Mass and traditional forms, his attacks against conversative bishops, and his general hostility toward the American church, can we honestly say that the Holy Spirit has anything to do with this papacy?
Really Deacon? I hope you are being sarcastic. For the Holy Spirit to work through the Cardinals they have to actually be open to LISTENING.Then acting on what they hear. I would imagine the Pope has stacked the Cardinals with men of his own leftist liberal thought process. I think chances of those men selecting a conservative or even moderate Pope are very slim, unless a miracle indeed happens. Because the thing about leftists is they ALWAYS believe they are right. No other line of thought need apply.
(Witness the suppression of the Latin Mass.) Still, with God anything is possible, right? For which we can all pray when the day arrives that a new Pope must be selected.
With the killer of the insurance executive being lauded online and on TV as some sort of hero by many, its obvious the church has failed at teaching ANY kind of morality. There is a significant need for the church to begin teaching at all age levels the basic concepts of morality, final accountability to God, and concern for our fellow man as taught by Jesus. This will not happen under a leftist, for whom there are no moral absolutes. The world is in sad shape.
Luigi mangler is an over educated know it all entitled rich kid who wanted to make a name for himself, and he has.
Gagliarducci has done his extensive homework on the possible machinations of the array of appointments to the cardinalate to suggest there’s less chance [that risk also lessened by lack of residency at Santa Marta] a Francis double will become the future pontiff.
Having regained steadfast vision after a dizzying assessment it seems Andrea Gagliarducci may well be correct. As are other feasible possibilities. Would one be the geographical, cultural, bedroom [eviction from the casa] distancing make for a consensus on Francis’ Synodality vision simply because there’s little opportunity to discuss the pressing issues like doctrinal integrity, the adherence to the Apostolic message?
Another possible in the range of possibilities is will Francis surprise everyone and remain in office as supreme pontiff until the second coming? After all he’s miraculously survived a bundle of medical issues and still, despite the wheelchair appears as strong as ever. Now we all must realize they’re limits to humor and that there’s a fine line between that and holy terror.
On a more serious note, a comment on the two major appearances of Our Lady and what the future conclave if it occurs may convey. At Lourdes and Fatima the Blessed Mother warns of the need to repent and do penance.
At Lourdes she announces she’s the Immaculate Conception. Affirming a doctrine that was loosely held even denied by the greatest doctor Saint Thomas Aquinas. [his belief that all men inclusive of Mary were subject to original sin requiring salvation by God achieved by Christ’s passion, death and resurrection]. Once confirmed it was taught that Mary was prefigured from all eternity [although both Athanasius and Cyril of Alexandria taught by inference that Mary was conceived without sin]. The significance of this reveals Mary’s exemplary role in the salvation of Man Paul VI declaring her Mother of the Church. As Mother of the Church and spiritually each of us she’s entitled by her Son to assume a form of coredemptrix per gratis of her Son.
Mary’s Fatima appearance is eschatological. There she conveys a message of prayers for the conversion of sinners, of Russia, for the avoidance of war and devastation. She permits the children Jacinta and Lucia to visually experience the torments of Hell. The highly controversial secretive third message was allegedly revealed when read by John XXIII who decided not to disclose the contents allegedly because of its severity [Fatima visionary Sr Lucia Dos Santos revealed the message to Cdl Mario Caffarra, that persecution of the traditional family would mark end times]. What the letter foretells is private revelation and cannot be confirmed as divine revelation.
Although recent historical events coinciding with Church recognition of Mary’s exemplary role within the Church, her appearances and warnings, John Paul II’s extraordinary pontificate, Benedict XVI’s controversial resignation serve as a credible warning of some form of chastisement for world and Church.
There sure are a preponderance of end times signs Father.
Since we’re discussing the journalism of Andrea Gagliarducci, an exceptional analyst of Church polity, a recent NCReg posted essay ‘What Pope Francis’ Synod Decision Says About His Governing Style’ deserves attention.
“Francis penned a note with the document saying that no other interpretation is possible’ and had it published in the Acta Apostolicae Sedis, a record of the official acts of the Holy See, making the Argentinian guidelines likewise part of the official magisterium. This underscores a second point about the Pope’s governing style. When a controversy over a document erupts, Pope Francis leaves open the possibility of a traditional interpretation. However, he then acts so that the non-traditional interpretation is not only preferred but also imposed, since it is included in official documents” (Gagliarducci CNA).
Andrea identifies the double messaging in Francis’ official decision making on submitted documents allowing the lower level chain of command to make decisions on doctrine that should be his responsibility. As if he were in favor of tradition when it’s the opposite. It’s this form of subversion that is slowly but inexorably reforming the Church.
I’d have more confidence in the Cardinals chosen from “the fringes” than from Europe or the Americas, since they often have more traditional values and practices than we currently see in the mainstream church.